The Electoral Consequences of Historical Amnesia: How Forgetting the Brazilian Military Dictatorship Fuels Authoritarian Politics

Abstract:This paper aims to explore how the erasure or distortion of the Brazilian Military Dictatorship (1964–1985) in public memory contributes to the resurgence of authoritarian political tendencies in contemporary Brazil. It argues that historical amnesia—reinforced by omissions in education, political rhetoric, and cultural narratives—undermines democratic values and shapes electoral behavior, particularly among youth, religious communities, peripheral populations, and conservative elites. Adopting a mixed-methods approach, the study combines content analysis of educational materials, media, and political discourse with public opinion data and exploratory interviews. The project examines the mechanisms through which authoritarianism becomes normalized by situating recent political developments within a broader framework of cultural and historical forgetting. Ultimately, it contends that confronting the legacy of dictatorship is not only a matter of historical justice but also a democratic necessity, offering critical insights into the relationship between memory, political culture, and democratic resilience in Brazil.

 

Keywords: Brazil, Military Dictatorship, authoritarianism, historical memory, political culture

 

Introduction:

The international acclaim of the film Ainda Estou Aqui (I’m Still Here), which revisits the disappearance of Congressman Rubens Paiva during Brazil’s military dictatorship, has reignited public and academic interest in the regime’s repressive legacy. Paiva’s case, as documented by Brazil’s National Truth Commission, was not isolated: over 400 people were killed or disappeared, and more than 20,000 were tortured between 1964 and 1985 (Comissão Nacional da Verdade 283–87). Yet, the historical memory of this violence remains fragile. As Previdelli argues, Brazil’s transition to democracy “turned the page” without confronting the past, forming an elite “pact of silence” (Previdelli). Historian Rodrigo Patto Sá Motta similarly notes that many Brazilians did not perceive the regime as a dictatorship due to its longevity and intergenerational disconnects (Uzêda). A 2024 Datafolha poll illustrates this amnesia: 28% of Brazilians support celebrating the 1964 coup, and 9% are undecided (Pinhoni). Political leaders have reinforced this normalization of authoritarianism. For instance, Jair Bolsonaro, a former president and retired army captain, praised the 1964 coup as a “democratic revolution,” supported amnesty for the January 8, 2023 insurrectionists, and is currently under investigation for allegedly plotting a coup and authorizing political violence. These developments suggest that historical ignorance is not merely a symptom of democratic fragility, but an active driver. This research proposal thus seeks to investigate: How does the lack of knowledge about Brazil’s military dictatorship influence the electoral behavior of specific social groups, contributing to the rise of authoritarian politics and weakening democracy in contemporary Brazil? Addressing this question requires examining the role of collective memory in shaping democratic resilience and understanding how its absence enables authoritarianism to reemerge.

 

Literature Review:

Foundational theorists such as Halbwachs and Nora argue that collective memory underpins national identity and safeguards democracy when actively cultivated through education and public discourse (Halbwachs 38–53; Nora 7–24). Conversely, its suppression fosters authoritarian resurgence. In the Latin American context, transitional justice scholars contend that impunity—often reinforced by amnesty laws, such as Brazil’s 1979 decree—prevents societies from confronting past human rights abuses (Jelin 64). This leads to “memory gaps” that hinder the political socialization of new generations and erode democratic culture. Rodrigo Patto Sá Motta and Previdelli emphasize that post-dictatorship Brazil failed to establish a national pedagogy of memory (Uzêda; Previdelli). The 1979 Amnesty Law shielded perpetrators from accountability, unlike Argentina, where trials contributed to reshaping public memory (Gaspari 89). Uzêda further argues that the military left power “unified, respected, and protected by a shroud of silence,” maintaining its influence in public institutions. This unresolved legacy enabled revisionist narratives. Initially criticized for its repression and economic failures, the dictatorship regained appeal among conservatives following the rise of the Workers’ Party and the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Uzêda attributes this shift in part to the growth of neopentecostalism, noting that 70% of Bolsonaro’s supporters identify with this group, many of whom view the regime as a period of order and morality. A 2010 survey revealed that while respondents remembered the 1970 World Cup, few identified the dictatorship as authoritarian, suggesting a superficial historical awareness. More recent data reinforces this: 28% support celebrating the 1964 coup, and among Bolsonaro voters, that figure rises to 33% (Pinhoni). This enduring historical amnesia is not merely a passive consequence of time, but an actively sustained condition, reinforced by political rhetoric and state inaction. The literature thus underscores a clear link between the erosion of historical memory and the fragility of democratic institutions. Understanding how this memory gap influences political behavior—especially among religious, conservative, and economically marginalized groups—is essential for addressing the structural threats facing Brazilian democracy today.

 

Methodology:​ 

This study adopts a mixed-methods approach to explore how historical ignorance of the dictatorship influences voting behavior among specific demographics:

​

1. Content Analysis: A qualitative analysis of political discourse will examine references to the military regime in speeches, social media, and campaign materials, particularly those from authoritarian-leaning figures like Bolsonaro. Major media outlets (e.g., Folha de S.Paulo, O Globo, CNN Brasil) will also be analyzed to assess how the dictatorship is framed in public discourse (2018–2024).

​

2. Survey Data Analysis: Quantitative data will be used to identify correlations between historical knowledge and political preferences. Key variables include respondents’ age, region, education level, income bracket, awareness or opinion of the 1964 coup, self-identified political ideology, and voting patterns from 2018 to 2022. Logistic regression and cross-tabulation will test associations between historical knowledge gaps and support for authoritarian candidates, with particular focus on evangelical, conservative, and low-income groups.

​

3. Semi-Structured Interviews: Exploratory interviews with educators, students, and political scientists may complement the above data by investigating how dictatorship narratives are transmitted—or omitted—within schools and communities. These interviews aim to capture how historical memory informs political identity formation.

​​

References :

Datafolha. “63% dos brasileiros dizem que data do golpe de 1964 deve ser desprezada.” G1, 30 Mar. 2024, https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2024/03/30/datafolha-63percent-dos-brasileiros-dizem-quedata-do-golpe-de-1964-deve-ser-desprezada.ghtml.

 

Gaspari, Elio. A Ditadura Envergonhada. Companhia das Letras, 2002, p. 89.

 

Halbwachs, Maurice. On Collective Memory. Translated by Lewis A. Coser, University of Chicago Press, 1992, pp. 3-24, https://books.google.com.br/books/about/On_Collective_Memory.html?id=GPhGukFWC84C&re dir_esc=y

 

Jelin, Elizabeth. Los Trabajos de la Memoria. Siglo XXI, 2002, pp. 65-80, https://books.google.com.br/books/about/Los_trabajos_de_la_memoria.html?id=pXNqAAAAM AAJ&redir_esc=y

 

Memórias Reveladas. Relatório Final da Comissão Nacional da Verdade – Volume I. Governo Federal, 2014, https://www.gov.br/memoriasreveladas/pt-br/assuntos/comissoes-da-verdade/volume_1_digital.p df.

 

Nora, Pierre. “Between Memory and History: Les Lieux de Mémoire.” Representations, vol. 26, no. 1, 1989, pp. 7–24, https://online.ucpress.edu/representations/article-abstract/doi/10.2307/2928520/82272/BetweenMemory-and-History-Les-Lieux-de-Memoire?redirectedFrom=fulltext

 

Previdelli, Fabio. “Por que muitos brasileiros não acreditam que existiu uma ditadura militar?” Aventuras na História, 22 Sept. 2024, https://aventurasnahistoria.com.br/noticias/reportagem/por-que-muitos-brasileiros-nao-acreditamque-existiu-uma-ditadura-militar.phtml.

 

Uzêda, André. "Historiador: Parte dos brasileiros não sabe que viveu uma ditadura." The Intercept, 3 Jan. 2024, https://www.intercept.com.br/2024/01/03/entrevista-ate-hoje-parte-da-sociedade-brasileira-nao-sa be-que-viveu-em-uma-ditadura-diz-historiador/. Accessed 22 Sept. 2024.